COP30 call to action
Roland Chaplain reports on the 2024 UN Climate Change Conference and examines the changes needed to combat the climate crisis.
I must start any feedback report on COP29 by stating what a huge privilege it was to have been one of the 10 online participants supporting Royal Meteorological Society CEO, Professor Liz Bentley at the conference in Baku, Azerbaijan in November last year.
This is the first time that there has been a facility enabling observer organisations to digitally move between meetings. 3000 of us globally took part from non-governmental organisations (NGOs) such as youth groups, indigenous peoples and research organisations, and although there is still a long way to go before NGOs and wider civic society have significant influence over outcomes, it is a vital first step to show that it is possible.
WHERE TO FIND RELIABLE ANALYSIS
A huge amount has been written about this COP in the national and international press. Personally I have found the daily reports from Earth Negotiations Bulletin (International Institute for Sustainable Development - IISD) some of the most useful. In particular the much longer, detailed analysis of what had been achieved which IISD published on the 26th November, just 2 days after COP29.
Much of the COP process is very technical and full of legal language to ensure nations comply with the agreements. To make the proceedings accessible to more people, throughout the fortnight I summarised what I was hearing at the press conferences, highlighting some of the discussions taking place and recording representations from those most affected right now by the climate crisis. You can read the summaries Impressions from COP29 below.
LOOKING AHEAD TO COP30 IN BRAZIL NEXT YEAR
This is the really important one, coming 10 years after the Paris Agreement, the legally binding international treaty to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels..
In response to calls from civic society and youth groups in Brazil, the Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) has called for this to be the first ever truly 'People’s COP’. It is essential for tackling the climate and nature crises that COP30 is structured in a way which redistributes the balance of power and includes meaningful online participation from citizens assemblies, community groups and other non-governmental organisations.
THE SCALE OF THE CHALLENGE AND THE ROUTE TO MAKING IT HAPPEN
The question is often posed as to whether there is any point in having COP negotiations at all when they are doomed to failure due to lobbyists from exploitative industries such as fossil fuels and armaments. Fortunately we have the scientific knowledge, self awareness and spirituality to see and understand what is happening and what needs to be done. We need to share the Brazilian vision for a Peoples COP.
This article is a call to everyone to recognise the inter-connectedness of all the causes and solutions to the present climate and biodiversity crises. Scotland is a microcosm of the global problems of human beings' relationship with the surface of our planet. The extreme concentration of the ownership of land into so few hands in Scotland typifies the global problem of legal systems that evolved to benefit the already wealthy and powerful, at the expense of the exploited.
For meaningful online participation at the forthcoming COP30, work would need to begin immediately in order to build the framework with the widest possible public buy in through citizens assemblies, organised down to the most local and inclusive of levels (see this article for more information about how this might work in the Glenkens).
Lets hope that the year-long process that culminates in COP30 in November 2025 in Brazil will see all of us go far beyond what any had previously thought possible to address the root cause of our present terrifying predicament.
Roland Chaplain
IMPRESSIONS FROM COP29
-
COP26, in part informed by COY16 (Youth Conference), was set in an ongoing process intended to come up with what is spoken of as a “Net Zero by 2050” response to the global climate and bio-diversity challenges caused by human activity over the past 3 centuries. Most of the current focus is on the carbon component of the debate but must also address the problem of the inappropriateness of the world's existing economic, legal and land ownership frameworks.
-
Three of the 'special messages' speeches at the start of COP29 stood out in particular:
Muhammad Yunus, Chief Advisor to the interim Bangladesh Government
His powerful and moving call for 'a new civilisation' went to the heart of what is the at the root of the climate crisis and what is needed if there is any serious chance of tackling it.
Edi Rama, Prime Minister of Albania
He abandoned his pre-prepared speech and spoke primarily about the scale of failure to match words with actions particularly in relation to continued rising CO2 emissions. He challenged 'business as normal' mentality and called on COP29 to take meaningful action.
Musalia Mudavadi, Cab Sec Foreign Affairs, Kenya
The figures he used went far beyond the NCQG aspirations for COP29. In past year 'Loss and Damage' effectively reduced Africa's GDP by somewhere between 9 and 12%. Based in part on these figures he called for the much higher 'L&D' target of between £4 and 6 Trillion per annum PLUS Debt restructuring.
-
On the morning when mainstream media are beginning to pick up on rumblings of discontent about the whole COP process including from several leading scientists, here is a quick resume of some of the main points coming out of this morning's 7 am and 7.30 am GMT Press Conferences in Baku.
350.org. Focus on impacts of climate change on indigenous and island peoples.
Rufino Varea, Island of Rotuma
Spoke about the 'lullaby' from the fossil fuel industries that lead us to sleep walk into climate inaction. Called for respect of life over profit. Also flagged up importance of COP31 which is due to be hosted by Australia and Pacific Islands.
Ilan Zugman, Brazil
New NDCs relating to adaptation and transfer away from fossil fuels. Concerns about 'hard to track' data in context of reliable decision making. Alerted us all to the fact that by 2030 Brazil is predicted to be world's 4th largest oil exporter mainly from the Amazon basin and coastal waters near the Amazon estuary. So how to square Brazil also being host to COP30 ?
YOUNGO (youth) and 450 organisations umbrella-ed by CAN International.
Focused on extent of the presence and power of 1700 fossil fuel industry lobbyists at COP29. Role of 'Oil Change International' campaign. Speakers made the link between fossil fuel and armaments industries vested interest in maintaining conflicts.
"Snakes poisoning COP". UK delegation accused of intentionally including significant number of fossil fuel lobbyists. This was contrasted with the effective 'marginalisation of people most affected by global warming' - particularly indigenous peoples.
There was a specific call for UNFCCC to come up with robust 'conflict of interest' policies for future COPs. This could only be seen as happening if there was also to be a major transition away for purely 'market based' solutions. One speaker went as far as calling for a complete ban on fossil fuel industry representation within COP negotiations in the interests of protecting these from being corrupted. Speaker from Ecuador specifically highlighted the intimidation (including murder) of particularly women who spoke out against the methods used by fossil fuel companies. Speaker from Uganda highlighted the likely impact on communities of the proposed large oil pipeline running across east Africa.
Continuing in the same vein there were calls for the ratification of the 'Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty'. Similarly for any future fossil fuel extraction still needed during the transition period being decoupled from private profit. Concluded with a very powerful presentation from a young Palestinian. Even after all the horrors shown on our TV screens, there was something about his verbal descriptions that went even further in bringing home to us what it is like for Palestinian 'survivors'.
Directly accused the 'Big Six' oil companies of colluding with those engineering the extermination of the Palestinian people.
-
First of all I must stress that at such a huge event there will be large variations amongst participants' impressions around both the effectiveness of the approach/process (particular negotiations, etc) and content. So, please treat the following as just a small sample of what particularly attracted my attention.
World Wildlife Fund WWF
As things stand most realistic projectory stands at 2.7C warming by the end of the century. As each year passes without adequate action the task becomes exponentially harder and more expensive. This is even more so the case with 'Loss and Damage' than with 'Adaptation'. Evasion around 'Mitigation' - kicked into new discussions next summer.
Marianne Lotz: Need to focus on keeping NCQG target of $1.3 at the heart of negotiations. To this end high polluting sectors have to be made to pay. Parallel with this - fossil fuel subsidies ($1.1 trillion in 2021) must be phased out asap.
Shirley Matheson: NDC's required from all nations are vital to any solution. However, big gap between commitments/ambition and actual action remains. Next 'Global Stocktaking' looking a bit more positive so long as 2030 targets are actually addressed.
Maheen Khan: "Adaptation is a climate justice issue". Too slow for less wealthy countries and all the more so for women and youth in these. Therefore, importance of 'whole society' approach.
Q&A: concerns around effects of head winds such as USA and Argentine. However, cautious optimism in the face that Ministerial section of COP this week just must not fail. Quality of NCQG finance in the face of 'contagion' from lobbyists and others.
CAN (Africa)
Wafa Misrar: At least a dozen mentions of fossil fuel phase out in this week's 25 page negotiating document – hopeful! However, Fadlul Kaboub came back strongly on the $Trillions of debt far exceeding promised reductions. Mentioned figure of $45 Trillion between now and 2050 just for Africa. Grants NOT loans and cancellation of ALL climate related debt.
Andreas Sieber: Raised question of 'what kind of money and where does it go?' So, any form of fossil fuel investment must be removed from COP final document. However, on a more optimistic not: number of countries on the 'High Level Panel on Finance' thinking along these lines has risen to 130.
Catherine Abreu, International Climate Politics Hub: Highlighted the importance of what the G20 leaders say at the Rio summit particularly in relation to 'fossil fuel phase out'. NOTE: this is due to be picked up on at COP29 on Wednesday.
Q&A: 2035 target of 55% fossil fuel use reduction by 2035. 'Beyond Oil and Gas' coalition membership has increased from 12 to 25 with UK part of their discussions.
NOTE: use of phrases deliberately referring to "$Trillions" need to be unpicked in relation to just what they relate to - otherwise they're just 'greenwashing'.
UNICEF - Young people's achievements
First speaker was 10 year old Georgina from Tanzania who had done a sponsored climb of Kilimanjaro and planted 1000 trees. Highlighted issues around the burning of forests and healthy oceans and clean beaches. Great delivery of speech, though lacked Greta Thunberg's spontaneity and calling to account the wealthy and powerful.
Had to wait until the last speaker before getting like the passion I was hoping to hear.
Catarina (17) from Brazil whose dad was from an indigenous community. [NOTE: an extremely important point made yesterday was that we should where ever possible refers to indigenous PEOPLES rather than 'communities' because large word devalues their claims to land rights in international law.] Had been campaigning since the age of 12 for children's rights and forcefully demanded that if there is to be any hope of effective action now then children must be empowered within decision making process of COP30 next year.
Oil Change International
Adrian Martinez, Argentina: Stressed importance of keeping 'Loss and Damage' as a major pillar of all COP negotiations. 'L&D' is an 'obligation' not just another form of (voluntary) 'philanthropy'. Concerned that the implications for international; law of this are not on the table yet for any of the COP29 negotiations.
Ivonne Yanez: Personally becoming more and more disappointed after each COP. Polluters must be made to pay a 'fine' NOT a 'fee'. The latter is just an excuse to continue to pollute indefinitely. Calls for recognition of the 'ecological debt' and implementation of the COP28 'phase out' mandate.
Q&A:
Andrea: focus on 16% contribution from global agriculture, particularly livestock. As with fossil fuels made accusation of negotiations being deliberately 'undermined'.
Chair: highlighted historic 'colonialist destruction' and the distractions of 'false solutions'. Stressed the importance of the potential power shift through making COP30 next November the "COP of the People".
Maureen Santos, FASE (global popular movement): Similarly spoke of COP30 in Belem, Brazil, as "The Peoples Summit". Wanted to see much of the dialogue informed by indigenous peoples' land rights. This link shows just how finely balanced the political landscape is in Brazil at the present time and, therefore, how important it is that all of 'civic society' globally rally to support what FASE and other civic organisations are doing in Brazil.
-
One of the highlights for me was this morning's 7am Press Conference given by 4 aboriginal women from Australia. Part of its significance lies within the context of the potential for Australia to host COP31 in 2026. More about that later.
World Council of Churches hosted an inter-faith Press Conference looking ahead of COP30 in Brazil.
I had high hopes about what I was expecting to hear in relation to this potentially being The Peoples COP (in the way COP29 has been build as the Finance and incidentally, much less mentioned, Women's COP). Sadly I feel there was too much looking back to what wasn't being achieved rather than to how COP30 could have a genuinely different power structure. Yes, much of what was said reflected an underlying belief that faith groups by their nature have a long term perspective rather than one of short term economic profiteering. Similarly in relation to the 'civic process in relation to respect for nature and human life.
The Quaker representative understandably homed in on the impacts of war and conflict and the importance of promoting peace and non-violence. Highlighted the 5.5% of military emissions which go unreported in the COP process. Similarly in relation to the £2.4 Trillion pa (£17 Trillion total estimated up to 2030) finance on military expenditure that could otherwise be available to tackle climate and nature crises.
Columbian speaker reminded us of importance of ratifying the 'Fossil Fuels Non-Proliferation Treaty'. Young Brazilian speaker focused on 11 million hectares of Brazilian forests burned just in 2023. Emphasised importance also of reckoning in Loss and Damage, particularly of indigenous peoples. Stressed importance of all this as being a justice for young people issue and wish to see Brazil next year being an exemplar to the world of what can be achieved.
Other issues touched upon included scepticism about carbon capture's role and also alarm over the worldwide phenomenon of electorates electing 'climate deniers'.
So, in summary: nothing ground breaking or new in relation to just how the call for COP30 to be a truly Peoples COP is to be achieved through the build up to it over the next 12 months. Not even the calling out of the level of power of corporate lobbyists to influence COP outcomes now which has to be addressed in relation to future COPs.
Press Conference given by 4 aboriginal women from Australia
Australia is a huge continent; there are some 300 indigenous/aboriginal nations/peoples/languages. Just 4 representatives on the platform. That raised the question once again of who are the 'Parties' at COPs? How is confidence to be restored amongst electorates globally around trust that those whom they elect won't quickly be corrupted by the powerful and those made wealthy by a flawed economic system? Does the answer perhaps lie elsewhere from our framing within the terminology of 'economic growth' and 'technological solutions' ? How can future COPs transition in new directions?
However, first of all lets hear the words from our 4 panelists:
Larissa Baldwin-Roberts: Australian $50 million pa 'Loss and Damage' contribution is but a drop in the ocean. 80% of the world's biodiversity is directly protected by indigenous peoples.
Polly Cutmore homed in on the issue of pollution of the artesian waters by New South Wales mining operations. Indeed, Polly went further to assert that that with their understanding of the total nature of evolution on this planet fossil fuel mining is a form of 'digging up our ancestors'. Something shared with the world view of other south Pacific indigenous peoples - thus, the importance of working together with all the many Pacific island indigenous populations.
Bianca McNeair, Western Australia spoke about the importance of sea grass, 30%+ of which has already been lost due to global warming. Bianca particularly called on the rest of the world to support Pacific peoples and the global south to be able to host COP31 in Australia.
Marrawa Johnson from north central Queensland explained her people's relationship with nature emanating from the world's longest 'continuous story of creation'/'oldest continuous culture'. The importance of that particular concept needs a bit of further unpicking for the western mind !
Think of it in the context of the evolution of consciousness, awareness and communication of these through all the means at our disposal.
Then relate that to the transience of any particular financial or legal system and try to understand what we talk of as 'human rights' in a new way.
Go on to look of all that is being attempted at COP29 in the context of artificial historic colonialist 'boundaries'.
Then ask the questions about climate/nature justice and who should pay how much in cash and kind. For example, the Australian Dollars $16 Billion pa subsidies for coal and gas extraction which should at the very least be being invested in 'adaptation'.